The End of the World as We Know It -- how can some people draw such conclusions from a software problem?

In case you haven't been able to figure out how a date problem in some software -- some computers -- could possibly create the havoc we've heard predicted -- power failures, no food, no communications, breakdown of law and order, back to the Dark Ages even -- because of a computer bug -- read on.

Here is a brief, simple explanation with no claims of great computer knowledge, just a easy-to-understand rundown of the thinking behind these claims.

So, first you have to remember and understand a "snowball" or "ripple" effect -- or maybe the "dominoes" thing. Then, and most importantly, you have to start with some of the assumptions on which TEOTWAWKI are based.

First, assume our society is extremely dependant on computers and computer technology -- almost everything everywhere has to be thought of as related to a computer system somewhere (or "embedded chips" -- more on this later).

The second assumption is that computers will fail. When these affected computers attempt to make forward calculations into and beyond the year 2000, there will either be errors in the output, or the software could lock up, or the whole computer system could crash and be inoperable.

A third assumption is that any failure in any linkage of computers will trigger failures all along the line.

Also, this assumption has to be extended to include the idea of such widespread failure that no system can be brought back up again, because you would need an up-and-running computer to bring any failed links back up to working condition.

Regarding the "embedded chips" referred to above -- these are generally thought of as microchips with time-related information in them. They are supposed to be in microwaves, ATM machines, automobiles, street lights, power plants, medical equipment and more and more.

This idea would extend the problem beyond software or computer failures to all sorts of electronic equipment.

Given all the above as possible and/or probable, the following paragraphs trace how the doomsday scenario would come about.

The snowball effect would be created by one computer in a link of computers, one bank in a link of banks, and one panic feeding on and fueling others. Further snowballing would also bring about shortages created by hoarding and panic.

If we keep extending this scenario, we can get to a severe problem of social disruption because basic services and supplies can't be found. Then add a loss of most employment because of this too.

The more extreme visions include computer breakdowns that cripple the national electric grid, telephone-switching stations and water filtration plants. There have been predictions of a severe global recession even if we don't quite reach TEOTWAWKI.

Possible malfunctions include but are not limited to:

Also, other's computers and equipment may cause problems even for those who are ready. A noncompliant bank's data will make every compliant bank noncompliant (if we stick with the basic assumptions) bringing about a world banking system crash.

So here we are -- no power, no currency system, no government offices, no Medicare, no IRS, no food in the cities, no delivery systems, no law enforcement, no jobs and riots in the cities!

Are you worried yet?

It all depends on how you see the basic assumptions. Remember this is based on the beliefs that -- one, we are so totally dependent on computer technology that we could never find our way without them, and -- two, computers will malfunction; that is, we will not find and correct the problems.

Read some of our other articles for updates on what to expect and other viewpoints.

Written by Georgia L. Bell. Copyright Georgia L. Bell, 1999. Permission to reprint this article -- uncut, unaltered, and in its entirety only -- is granted only if all information in this notice, including link to New Millennium Three Year Celebration Website and copyright notice, is included as it is written. First published on The New Millennium Three Year Celebration on the WWW. -- http://www.site901.com/ -- jeorjia@site901.com.

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